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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 61

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(:45) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase to CIN 37 for -2 yards (33-C.DeJean).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.83 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model