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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 52

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 10-B.Mann punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-49-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.57 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 52, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.73 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP