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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 9

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 2-E.McPherson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +2.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.62 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 9, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP