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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 7

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.24 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 7, worth +0.62 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model