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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 43

Pittsburgh Steelers 26 – New York Giants 18

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 8-C.Waitman punts 36 yards to NYG 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +0.69 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 43, worth -1.73 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP