4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 30

New York Giants 15 – Pittsburgh Steelers 26

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 34-G.Joseph 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-38-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.31 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model