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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 9

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – New York Giants 15

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 9-C.Boswell 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 9, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model