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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 13

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.43 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 13, worth +0.70 EP
KICK +2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.80 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model