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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 28

New York Giants 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(14:20) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at PIT 23 for 5 yards (31-B.Bishop).

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.03 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.19 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model