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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 46

Los Angeles Rams 28 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to MIN 5, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +0.66 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP