4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 17

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 16-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.92 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 17, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP