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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 5

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 16-W.Reichard 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.51 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 5, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP