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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 64

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to LA 11, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 64, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model