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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 17-R.Wright punts 61 yards to LA 8, Center-42-A.DePaola. 19-X.Smith to LA 12 for 4 yards (11-T.Sherfield).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.18 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 27, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model