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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 14

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 2-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model