Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to KC 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 17-M.Hardman to KC 30 for 21 yards (45-T.Eichenberg; 53-A.Gainer). PENALTY on KC-21-J.Hicks, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at KC 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.36 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model