Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

(1:06) 6-A.Cole punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.68 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -3.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model