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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 49

Washington Commanders 12 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(10:35) 10-T.Way punts 34 yards to CHI 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 11-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.69 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.20 EP
KICK -1.62 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.23 EP
PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP