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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 33

Washington Commanders 12 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 3-A.Seibert 51 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.34 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -2.08 EP
KICK +0.18 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.12 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model