4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 86

Washington Commanders 12 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 10-T.Way punts 49 yards to CHI 37, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-D.Carter to CHI 41 for 4 yards (35-P.Butler).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.20 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 86, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -3.02 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 44, worth -3.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP