Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 93

Chicago Bears 0 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to WAS 44, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus. PENALTY on CHI-92-D.Hardy, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 44.

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.28 EP
55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 93, worth -5.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model