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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 9

Washington Commanders 6 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 3-A.Seibert 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.84 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 9, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP