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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 60

Chicago Bears 0 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 2-D.Moore to CHI 40 for no gain (25-B.St-Juste, 4-F.Luvu).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.90 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 19, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model