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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 59

Washington Commanders 6 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 10-T.Way punts 39 yards to CHI 20, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.85 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 59, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP