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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 61

Chicago Bears 0 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 19-T.Taylor punts 52 yards to WAS 9, Center-46-S.Daly. 14-O.Zaccheaus to WAS 17 for 8 yards (21-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.80 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 20, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP