Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 68

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

(3:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 68 yards to BUF 0, Center-41-C.Stoll. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 12 for 12 yards (33-D.Williams; 32-J.Reed).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.37 EP
61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 68, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model