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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 66

Buffalo Bills 31 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 8-S.Martin punts 40 yards to SEA 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 33-D.Williams MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BUF-13-M.Hollins at SEA 26. Penalty on SEA-18-J.Ross, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.74 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP