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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 78

Buffalo Bills 31 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 8-S.Martin punts 58 yards to SEA 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 33-D.Williams to SEA 32 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop; 99-C.Toohill). PENALTY on SEA-32-J.Reed, Tripping, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.34 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 78, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 35, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP