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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 64

Buffalo Bills 24 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(13:51) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen up the middle to BUF 38 for 2 yards (0-T.Dodson).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.83 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 22, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model