4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 8

Buffalo Bills 14 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 8, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP