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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 20

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.62 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 20, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model