Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 4-M.Dickson punts 61 yards to BUF 8, Center-41-C.Stoll. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 19 for 11 yards (24-K.Wallace). PENALTY on BUF-39-C.Lewis, Illegal Blindside Block, 9 yards, enforced at BUF 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.71 EP
62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 69, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model