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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 40

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 13-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to TB 3, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-35-N.Brooks.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.68 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP