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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 33
Atlanta Falcons 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26
What Actually Happened
(2:24) 18-K.Cousins up the middle to TB 30 for 3 yards (90-L.Hall).
The Three Options
GO
+1.77 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.10 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.18 EP
KICK
+0.98 EP
- 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
- 27% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT
-0.38 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
