Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

(12:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to TB 25, Center-49-L.McCullough. 10-T.Palmer to TB 39 for 14 yards (25-T.Allgeier).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.01 EP
60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model