4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 36

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:59) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-26-K.Merriweather, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.67 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.02 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -3.15 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model