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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 34

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 4-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.45 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 34, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP