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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 16-T.Gill punts 42 yards to ATL 25, Center-45-Z.Triner. 26-A.Williams to ATL 39 for 14 yards (98-A.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.16 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 25, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model