Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 19 at the 71

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(5:25) 38-M.Haack punts 58 yards to PHI 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 28 for 15 yards (47-T.Summers). PENALTY on PHI-58-J.Hunt, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 23.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.95 EP
73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model