Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 74

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(8:40) 38-M.Haack punts 47 yards to PHI 27, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 34 for 7 yards (47-T.Summers, 49-M.Adams).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.42 EP
70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 74, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model