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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 80

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(4:22) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to NYG 37, Center-49-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.48 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 80, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 37, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model