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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 5

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(8:34) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right guard to NYG 1 for 4 yards (27-J.Pinnock).

The Three Options

GO +3.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.10 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 5, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model