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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 73

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 38-M.Haack punts 50 yards to PHI 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.56 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 31, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP