Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New York Giants 3

(13:29) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to NYG 11, Center-49-R.Lovato. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 20 for 9 yards (21-S.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.11 EP
57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 66, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model