Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 18 at the 78

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 38-M.Haack punts 64 yards to PHI 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 42 for 28 yards (82-D.Bellinger; 88-B.Ford-Wheaton). NYG-47-T.Summers was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.26 EP
72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 78, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model