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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 22

New England Patriots 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 13-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.79 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model