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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 45

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to NE 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 25-M.Jones to NE 15 for 8 yards (51-V.Miller).

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.60 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model