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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 6

Jacksonville Jaguars 25 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle to NE 6 for no gain (50-R.McMillan; 94-J.Roy).

The Three Options

GO +3.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.76 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 6, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model