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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 70

New England Patriots 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 66 yards to JAX 4, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-P.Washington for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.86 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 70, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 28, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model