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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 58

New England Patriots 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to JAX 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.59 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 58, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model